Voting Begins In Crucial US Midterm Elections
Voting in the US midterm elections effectively began Friday as North Carolina became the first state to send out mail ballots for contests expected to threaten President Donald Trump's Republican control of Congress.
The November 3 elections will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate, determining how much freedom Trump has to pursue his agenda during the remaining two years of his term.
Democrats enter the final months favored to take the House.
A new Cornell University forecasting model gives them an eight-in-10 chance of winning control and projects a roughly 226-209 majority, while other forecasters similarly give the opposition party an edge.
The Senate is expected to be much closer. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, leaving Democrats needing a net gain of four seats, while Decision Desk HQ has projected a possible 50-50 chamber in which Republican Vice President JD Vance would cast tie-breaking votes.
"These forecasts aren't deterministic -- there is uncertainty," said Peter K. Enns, professor of government and policy at Cornell.
"But given our model's impressive historical accuracy, if Republicans hold the House, it likely means either everything has gone their way or something unprecedented has happened."
Trump himself will not appear on the ballot, but Republicans are portraying the election as a referendum on his presidency and urging supporters who backed him in 2024 to turn out again.
The president's party faces traditional midterm headwinds alongside low approval ratings, voter concern over prices and the war with Iran.
Voting begins amid turmoil over mail ballots.
Trump is asking the Supreme Court to allow the Postal Service to impose new verification requirements that have been temporarily blocked by a federal judge, while an agency whistleblower has warned that the hastily developed system could disrupt delivery of ballots.
North Carolina officials said their mail voting would nevertheless proceed as planned.
Other states begin distributing absentee ballots throughout September, with all required to send ballots to military and overseas voters by the middle of the month.
The Barron's news department was not involved in the creation of the content above. This article was produced by AFP. For more information go to
Few swing voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a congressional candidate
Democrats continue to have an edge over Republicans in vote intent for the November elections for U.S. Congress, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 46% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district, and 40% will vote for the Republican candidate. That 6-point Democratic lead among registered voters is in line with recent weeks, and larger than the Democrats' low-single-digit lead for much of the summer.
Democrats have an even bigger lead among likely voters. These are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: They either are registered to vote or say they will register before the November election, and they either say they definitely will vote or say they have already voted. Among likely voters, 52% back the Democratic candidate and 40% the Republican, a 12-point Democratic lead.
Among likely voters, almost all Democrats say they will vote for the Democratic candidate (95%, vs. 1% who will vote for a Republican). Republicans are almost as likely to back their own candidates (3% will vote for a Democrat and 93% for a Republican). Independent likely voters' vote intent largely explains the Democratic lead: They are more than twice as likely to say they'll vote for Democratic candidates as for Republican candidates (56% vs. 24%).
Likely voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 support Democratic candidates by 95% to 1%, while among 2024 Trump voters 88% back Republican candidates and 5% back Democrats. Likely voters who didn't vote in 2024 now break for Democrats by 50% to 28%.
Overall, 36% of Americans strongly approve (19%) or somewhat approve (17%) of Trump's job performance, and 60% strongly disapprove (50%) or somewhat disapprove (11%). Likely voters have similar views about Trump's job handling, while being slightly more likely to hold strong opinions.
Only 21% of registered voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress, while 50% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.
Among registered voters who say they'll vote for Democrats for Congress and that their mind is made up, almost all (92%) say a Trump endorsement would make them much less likely or somewhat less likely to vote for a candidate. Only 54% of certain Republican voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 39% of certain Republican voters say Trump's endorsement would make no difference.
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Swing voters â registered voters who are unsure which party's candidate they'll vote for, or who say they'll vote for Democratic or Republican candidates but could change their minds â are much more likely to say a Trump endorsement is a negative factor than to say it's a positive one (43% vs. 9%).
Only 70% of registered voters who strongly approve of Trump's job handling say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 93% of those who strongly disapprove of Trump say his endorsement would be a negative. The latter group also greatly outnumbers the second group (49% of registered voters vs. 20%).
